| --- Log opened Tue Apr 12 00:00:55 2016 |
| 00:01 | | catadroid [catalyst@Nightstar-3965e6.dab.02.net] has joined #code |
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| 00:05 | <@Reiv> | 8 dice @ 5+, rerolling all misses once is mathematically equivalent to 12 dice @ 5+ but with a much tighter distribution, correct? |
| 00:06 | <@Reiv> | My intuition declares it self-evidence (after all, if you roll 8 fails, you get 8 more rolls; whilst with 12-flat you roll only 4; simultaneously you cap at 8 instead of 12 at the upper end) |
| 00:06 | <@Reiv> | But I want to make sure I'm not insane. |
| 00:07 | <@Reiv> | The second wrinkle is what happens if this suddenly becomes 8 @ 4+ vs 12 @ 4+; I /think/ that it still averages to 6 hits overall, but I get the feeling this is more by happy fluke of dice than anything. |
| 00:07 | <&Derakon> | Mm, my intuition is that you take a flat distribution, and then shift 33% of the 1-4 results into 5-6. |
| 00:08 | <@Reiv> | It's hardly flat; it's binomial but a pretty stretched one |
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| 00:08 | <&Derakon> | Oh wait, you're counting number of "hits", sorry. |
| 00:08 | <&Derakon> | Yeah, it's been too long since I did this stuff for me to be anything more than a distraction. |
| 00:12 | <~Vornicus> | 1/3 + 2/3 * 1/3 = 5/9; thus this is somewhere around 8 dice @ 3.66666+ |
| 00:12 | <~Vornicus> | Each die can be considered independent. |
| 00:27 | <@Reiv> | But |
| 00:27 | <@Reiv> | I, uh, hrm |
| 00:28 | <@Reiv> | I have for a very long time assumed that rerolling a 5+ die works out roughly to rolling a 4+ die to start with |
| 00:28 | <@Reiv> | Is this assumption incorrect? |
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| 00:46 | < ErikMesoy> | Reiv: A 4+ die is 1/2. A 5+ die with reroll is, as Vorn notes, 5/9. Is this within the level of "roughly" you want? |
| 00:48 | <~Vornicus> | (to be precise: 18 rolls of 5+ gives 6 successes; 18 of 4+ gives 9; 18 of 3+ gives 12; 18 of 5+ with reroll gives 10) |
| 00:48 | < ErikMesoy> | And for the other: 8 dice @ 5+,reroll is 40/9ths on average, or 4 & 4/9ths. The closest value without reroll is 13 dice @ 5+ which is 39/9ths (4 & 3/9ths). |
| 00:52 | <@Reiv> | I, hm |
| 00:52 | <@Reiv> | 5+ is 1/3 |
| 00:53 | <@Reiv> | For some erason I'd always mathed the reroll of the 1/3 to equal out to 1/6, and thus be equivalent |
| 00:54 | <~Vornicus> | 4+ with reroll is equivalent to 3+ |
| 00:54 | <@Reiv> | ... aha, I may have been in error trying to go the other direction then |
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| 00:54 | < ErikMesoy> | The reroll of 1/3 is an extra 2/9. |
| 00:55 | <@Reiv> | Well, I am educated. |
| 00:55 | <@Reiv> | Mildly annoyed at my intuition, but educated nonetheless. |
| 00:56 | <@Reiv> | Ssso, 8@5+ withrerolls is actually better than 12 @ 5+ flat |
| 00:56 | <@Reiv> | How interesting. |
| 00:56 | < ErikMesoy> | Intuition is why professional gamblers can make a living. :) |
| 00:59 | <@Reiv> | Yyep, I was totally giving the house an edge of, uh, a ... that fraction is hard to work out |
| 00:59 | <~Vornicus> | 10:9 |
| 01:00 | < ErikMesoy> | 10:9 is the ratio of EVs, at least. I doubt it's also the edge... |
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| 01:02 | <@Reiv> | 11% |
| 01:02 | <@Reiv> | That... actually adds up pretty quick |
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| 01:10 | < ErikMesoy> | Monte Carlo over a million rolls: if you are rolling the 12 dice @5+ and the house has 8 dice @5+reroll, program returns house 498k, reiv 325k, tie 177k. |
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| 01:11 | | * Reiv snorts |
| 01:11 | <@Reiv> | Yeah >_> |
| 01:13 | < ErikMesoy> | House edge appears to be 8.5% from that. |
| 01:15 | < ErikMesoy> | Assuming I know how to calculate house edge at all, which is probably the trickiest part here. >_> |
| 01:16 | <&McMartin> | Those look like good enough raw numberes that if you *don't* someone who does could. |
| 01:18 | < ErikMesoy> | I used (house - reiv - ties/2) / total |
| 01:22 | <&McMartin> | Hm. Presumably if they push no money changes hands |
| 01:22 | <&McMartin> | Removing the ties figure gives an edge of 17%. |
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| 15:08 | < Emmy> | yay for finding out newly introduced bugs you did not know about just as you demo something to your boss because you deem it 'done' >.< |
| 15:09 | <@TheWatcher> | Demos cause bugs. Well known fact~ |
| 15:09 | < Emmy> | hehehehe |
| 15:10 | < Emmy> | Still, it's rather embarassing, and annoying. ^.^; |
| 15:13 | < Emmy> | Hmmh, btw, i'm curious, why so many ops in this channel? |
| 15:15 | <@TheWatcher> | The general principle can be summarised as "An armed society is a polite society" |
| 15:15 | | Irssi: #code: Total of 40 nicks [22 ops, 0 halfops, 0 voices, 18 normal] |
| 15:18 | < Emmy> | Ah. |
| 15:19 | < Emmy> | However, not necessarily a peaceful society. :P |
| 15:19 | <&ToxicFrog> | This one generally is. |
| 15:23 | < Emmy> | True, True, but that probably has more to do with the fact that the average intelligence in this channel is quite a bit above normal. :d |
| 15:25 | < Emmy> | Also, Re: armed society, it does mean that those unarmed feel rather uneasy. :P |
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| 21:30 | <@gnolam> | https://serverfault.com/questions/769357/recovering-from-a-rm-rf |
| 21:31 | < crystalclaw> | That one is just so sad for that person |
| 21:31 | < crystalclaw> | That's one less hosting company I suppose |
| 22:01 | | Kindamoody|afk is now known as Kindamoody |
| 22:03 | < Azash> | Seems like a troll really |
| 22:04 | <&McMartin> | I am also reminded of that "you must give us everyone's passwords for auditing purposes" case |
| 22:06 | < crystalclaw> | ^ |
| 22:18 | < starkruzr> | stupid question: I am attempting to shake the rust off my Rails skills. I could swear to God there was a way to sort of explore my model with irb by doing things like NameOfObject.all, but it's pretending not to know what I'm talking about. |
| 22:18 | < starkruzr> | what am I forgetting to do? |
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| 22:32 | <&ToxicFrog> | McMartin: which one? |
| 22:32 | <&McMartin> | Um, will have to dig it up again |
| 22:32 | <&McMartin> | It's years old but made the rounds again recently |
| 22:32 | <&ToxicFrog> | (that is no shit the official policy at the library my MIL works at) |
| 22:32 | <&ToxicFrog> | (the whole place is a trainwreck of incompetence and corruption and the IT side is no exception) |
| 22:35 | <@TheWatcher> | (...) |
| 22:36 | <@TheWatcher> | http://serverfault.com/questions/293217/our-security-auditor-is-an-idiot-how-do- i-give-him-the-information-he-wants |
| 22:36 | <@TheWatcher> | That's the one McM was referring to, I believe. |
| 22:37 | <&McMartin> | That looks right. |
| 22:39 | <&McMartin> | Yeah, my grep keeps faiilng because I forget to force grep to treat my logs as text (???) |
| 22:39 | <&McMartin> | After awhile it just says "binary file #code.log matches" |
| 22:50 | <@TheWatcher> | grep's really picky about multibyte characters, so |
| 22:51 | <&McMartin> | So it would seem |
| 22:52 | <&ToxicFrog> | 'grep -a' will treat everything as text |
| 22:52 | <&McMartin> | Yep |
| 22:53 | <&McMartin> | That is in fact the exact option I have to use on #code if I don't want incomplete results |
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| --- Log closed Wed Apr 13 00:00:11 2016 |